On what basis so you say this, what political science are you relying on? History shows that beating an incumbent is tough. In our polarized environment most Republicans vote for the GOP AND Trump has a base of 40% that are intensely loyal to him. Still, he got soundly beaten.
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Replying to @zachdcarter
I make no claims to expertise but: I do think COVID hurt Trump and he likely would have won without it. At the same time it became another front on the culture war for many of his supporters. Polls don't seem to show that the economy hurt him, esp. after the Q3 recovery.
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Replying to @LarryGlickman @zachdcarter
Also, voters believed (correctly) that they were better off now (at least, economically) than they had been when Trump took officepic.twitter.com/1Kah7uwzIk
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It was an extremely odd electoral environment, with "fundamentals" variables scrambled every which way. I lean towards the idea that overall, this context was more favorable for Dems than the typical year (most Republican pols are more popular than Trump). But not too confident
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Really an outlier year in so many ways. I don't think we can draw a conclusion of what a year without Trump on ticket and no Covid would look like.
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Yep, that's the case all over the world. In most countries national leaders see a big bump because of Covid -- often in 60% to 80% range. Trump's polarizing ability was such he only saw a small bump at start which arguably disappeared.
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