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HeerJeet's profile
Jeet Heer
Jeet Heer
Jeet Heer
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@HeerJeet

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Jeet HeerVerified account

@HeerJeet

1. Writer, The Nation https://www.thenation.com/authors/jeet-heer/ … 2. email: jeetheer1967 at gmail dot com 3. Twitter essayist 4. Drawn by Joe Ollmann

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Joined June 2012

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    Jeet Heer‏Verified account @HeerJeet 3 Nov 2020

    Jeet Heer Retweeted Nate Silver

    Genuine question: what does exit polling even mean if a majority of those who will vote have voted early?https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323734067246960645 …

    Jeet Heer added,

    Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
    Among other things I would be VERY CAREFUL WITH EARLY EXIT POLLS. Even more so than usual. If there are big splits in the partisan composition of the electorate over the course of the day, and we're seeing that in FL, AZ and NV, exits conducted early on could be quite misleading.
    Show this thread
    1:14 PM - 3 Nov 2020
    • 50 Retweets
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    • klobalist DoubtingThomas Alanna Lowry Rick Gigger bado Emma Bartholomew KB 🌹 LN Tyler A Martin
    36 replies 50 retweets 660 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. That Norwegian  🇳🇴 🇺🇸‏ @norwegian76 3 Nov 2020
        Replying to @HeerJeet

        Exit polling companies are also polling mail-in voters this year.

        1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
      3. Movie Mistakes‏ @moviemistakes 3 Nov 2020
        Replying to @norwegian76 @HeerJeet

        But that relies on trusting that people who claim to have voted / voted a certain way actually did. Granted that's true of regular exit polls too, but I'd imagine the odds are better in person.

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Show replies
      1. Byron T. Kittle‏ @ByronKittle 3 Nov 2020
        Replying to @HeerJeet

        it helps generate ~content~

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Jenna Filmore‏ @FilmoreJenna 3 Nov 2020
        Replying to @HeerJeet

        they are supposed to have polled those who voted early. it is basically another big poll at this point.

        0 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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      1. Adam Jay‏ @BullGooseParty 3 Nov 2020
        Replying to @HeerJeet

        Has major implications for when CNN calls commercial breaks

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. John Nicolay‏ @johnnicolay 3 Nov 2020
        Replying to @HeerJeet

        Think of it as a final, giant sample size opinion poll. That’s all.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Jonathan Assink‏ @jonassink 3 Nov 2020
        Replying to @HeerJeet

        If you tallied it by party registration you could actually compare it/add it to early vote data to start getting a fuller picture of turnout, but yeah, no way it gives you an accurate idea of the results.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Paul Adams‏ @padams29 3 Nov 2020
        Replying to @HeerJeet @EmmMacfarlane

        They have been exit polling early voters and mail voters too

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. James O'Leary‏ @jpohhhh 3 Nov 2020
        Replying to @HeerJeet

        +1, it's unclear why anyone cares about today, other than the inevitable posturing by bothsides at end of the night. 94 million ballots have been cast already just in early voting, unless Biden is getting 66%+ of the vote of 200 million people turning out today, nothing is set

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Fist Steakface‏ @FistSteakface 3 Nov 2020
        Replying to @jpohhhh @HeerJeet

        200 million? In all likelihood total turnout will be between 150 and 160 million including the 100 million-ish early votes, so the real question is how much Biden led the early vote by, and how much Trump leads the in person vote today.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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