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HeerJeet's profile
Jeet Heer
Jeet Heer
Jeet Heer
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@HeerJeet

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Jeet HeerVerified account

@HeerJeet

1. Writer, The Nation https://www.thenation.com/authors/jeet-heer/ … 2. email: jeetheer1967 at gmail dot com 3. Twitter essayist 4. Drawn by Joe Ollmann

thenation.com
Joined June 2012

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    1. James Surowiecki‏Verified account @JamesSurowiecki 23 Oct 2020

      James Surowiecki Retweeted Nathaniel Rakich

      Reagan actually extended his lead over the last 11 days in both 1980 and 1984. Carter's margin in '76, Bush's margin in 2004 and Obama's margin in 2008 stayed about the same. In the other 6 elections (6 of the last 9), the frontrunner lost between 3-6 pts over the homestretch.https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1319682745363288064 …

      James Surowiecki added,

      Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot
      The @FiveThirtyEight nat'l polling average with 11 days until E-Day: 2020: Biden+9.8 2016: Clinton+5.8 2012: Romney+0.9 2008: Obama+7.5 2004: Bush+1.9 2000: Bush+3.4 1996: Clinton+14.3 1992: Clinton+11.7 1988: Bush+11.7 1984: Reagan+16.9 1980: Reagan+2.3 1976: Carter+2.0
      5 replies 9 retweets 15 likes
    2. Jeet Heer‏Verified account @HeerJeet 23 Oct 2020
      Replying to @JamesSurowiecki

      Right, we should expect a narrowing. On the other hand, the polls have really not wavered much at all this year and there's no real sign of that yet.

      3 replies 2 retweets 13 likes
    3. James Surowiecki‏Verified account @JamesSurowiecki 23 Oct 2020
      Replying to @HeerJeet

      I assume some of the Trump "undecideds" will come back to him, but hard to see how it would be enough to make a difference.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Jeet Heer‏Verified account @HeerJeet 23 Oct 2020
      Replying to @JamesSurowiecki

      Many fewer undecideds than 2016. Fewer 3rd party voters too.

      2:29 PM - 23 Oct 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • domestic infant supply chain manager Greg Machlin kw1979
      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. James Surowiecki‏Verified account @JamesSurowiecki 23 Oct 2020
          Replying to @HeerJeet

          Yeah - that's the biggest difference between now and 2016. Trump would basically have to win all the undecideds to make it close in the EC.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Autarkh‏ @Autarkh 23 Oct 2020
          Replying to @HeerJeet @JamesSurowiecki

          Yeah, the races look pretty different, largely because they're driven by different dynamics.pic.twitter.com/B9PvcnUdI3

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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