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HeerJeet's profile
Jeet Heer
Jeet Heer
Jeet Heer
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@HeerJeet

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Jeet HeerVerified account

@HeerJeet

1. Writer, The Nation https://www.thenation.com/authors/jeet-heer/ … 2. email: jeetheer1967 at gmail dot com 3. Twitter essayist 4. Drawn by Joe Ollmann

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Joined June 2012

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    Jeet Heer‏Verified account @HeerJeet 15 Oct 2020

    Jeet Heer Retweeted Nate Silver

    This is accurate. 538 model was robust for Trump 2016, usually in the neighborhood of 30% (i.e. playing Russian roulette with 2 bullets). When one of the bullets went off, people cried "why didn't you warn us!"https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1316836239564304388 …

    Jeet Heer added,

    Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
    One thing about 2016 is it wasn't just that our model gave Trump a better chance than other models/conventional wisdom, but also that we really tried to lean into that with our headlines, on social media, etc. We were quite adamant about pointing out that Trump had a decent shot. pic.twitter.com/GS3gC15WEp
    Show this thread
    1:34 PM - 15 Oct 2020
    • 21 Retweets
    • 221 Likes
    • dorianmarley Jake Chris H. Melissa (She/Her) 💉💉💉 Ben Stark John Davis 🍎🖥🔥🐣 Febin Rob 🌎
    9 replies 21 retweets 221 likes
      1. Jeet Heer‏Verified account @HeerJeet 15 Oct 2020

        My bigger take on this is that it shouldn't matter to people what the exact percentage of Trump's chances are, but rather that he has a chance. If you think Trump's re-election is a disaster, do you work any less hard against it if the chances are only 15% and not 30%?

        14 replies 13 retweets 156 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Matt Mehan‏ @MTMehan 15 Oct 2020
        Replying to @HeerJeet

        Because people don't read mathematics as such in political conversations.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Matt Mehan‏ @MTMehan 15 Oct 2020
        Replying to @MTMehan @HeerJeet

        Matt Mehan Retweeted Matt Mehan

        On the topic:https://twitter.com/MTMehan/status/1316839881981808641?s=20 …

        Matt Mehan added,

        Matt Mehan @MTMehan
        In common use, a "70%" chance of anything means that you think it is basically gonna happen, but you can't say that cause ya gotta sound reasonable. "90%" is "definitely, but an act of God can happen." Etc. https://twitter.com/MTMehan/status/1316839489831088128 …
        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. megahertz maroon‏ @septomin 15 Oct 2020
        Replying to @HeerJeet

        things with a 49% chance should never happen, and things with a 51% chance should always happen

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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      2. Vetarnias‏ @Vetarnias 15 Oct 2020
        Replying to @HeerJeet

        The problem with Silver has always been the same: he hedges his bets, then claims to have correctly predicted it (no matter how thin the odds), blames others (especially polling companies) for errors, and whines his readers don't understand statistics.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Vetarnias‏ @Vetarnias 15 Oct 2020
        Replying to @Vetarnias @HeerJeet

        Then there are Silver's followers, who have been treating him like an infallible oracle, while in his mind, he's more like a Cassandra giving perpetual 25% odds on the fall of Troy any time soon and then moaning that nobody believed him (while not losing any sleep over its fall).

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Show replies
      1. Jennifer G  🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊  🇺🇦 🇺🇦 🇺🇦‏ @JennyleeGLV 15 Oct 2020
        Replying to @HeerJeet

        People don’t understand odds. Just because a candidate is probably going to win, it doesn’t mean they will 100%

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Brodie‏ @Broloccini 15 Oct 2020
        Replying to @HeerJeet

        people get upset when there's a 60% chance of rain and it doesn't rain because percentages

        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      3. Super Follower 🐵‏ @_MLRA_ 15 Oct 2020
        Replying to @Broloccini @HeerJeet

        Its worse, since it rains several times per year (depends on season, location, blah blah), and there is 1 presidential election every 4 years! So Silver was """"""wrong""""" at 100% of the events predicted between 2013-2019!

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. KC‏ @_juan_nieve 15 Oct 2020
        Replying to @HeerJeet @MC_of_A

        A .286 hitter got a hit and people were surprised

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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