My bigger take on this is that it shouldn't matter to people what the exact percentage of Trump's chances are, but rather that he has a chance. If you think Trump's re-election is a disaster, do you work any less hard against it if the chances are only 15% and not 30%?
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Because people don't read mathematics as such in political conversations.
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things with a 49% chance should never happen, and things with a 51% chance should always happen
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The problem with Silver has always been the same: he hedges his bets, then claims to have correctly predicted it (no matter how thin the odds), blames others (especially polling companies) for errors, and whines his readers don't understand statistics.
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Then there are Silver's followers, who have been treating him like an infallible oracle, while in his mind, he's more like a Cassandra giving perpetual 25% odds on the fall of Troy any time soon and then moaning that nobody believed him (while not losing any sleep over its fall).
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People don’t understand odds. Just because a candidate is probably going to win, it doesn’t mean they will 100%
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people get upset when there's a 60% chance of rain and it doesn't rain because percentages
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Its worse, since it rains several times per year (depends on season, location, blah blah), and there is 1 presidential election every 4 years! So Silver was """"""wrong""""" at 100% of the events predicted between 2013-2019!
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A .286 hitter got a hit and people were surprised
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