Trump gained more from the RNC than Biden did from VP + DNC.https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301137385309245440 …
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I'm not certain the claim is even factually correct. Look at where they were in early August. I'm concerned too. Believe me. But the net of everything at the moment seems like a wash.
Right — so far the race hasn’t deviated from the 538 model’s pre-conventions/Kenosha expectations. It still expects Trump to lose what’s left of his convention bounce (~1 point). It also expects the race to tighten by a couple points for various other reasons. Nothing new there.
US vs developed world on COVID keeps getting worse. US economic suffering as UI extension ends keeps getting worse. Racial strike keeps getting worse. USPS. Fed response to derecho, Hurricane Laura have been poor. Trump should be declining.
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