1. Joe Biden has had a healthy lead of 7%-9% which is holding steady or (if we rely on polls done with interviews rather than just online) is growing. But as a guard against complacency, consider 1988.https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1286320692447907840 …
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3. Clearly Trump's "law and order" push -- including sending federal agents to Portland & Chicago -- is move to reignite culture wars by stoking racist paranoia about urban America. So far it hasn't been working.
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4. Law and order clearly stokes up the right-wing base & is probably keeping Trump from a real free fall. If you go to MAGA-twitter, these folks really are afraid of antifa & BLM violent revolution. But it's not winning the broader middle-ground voter.
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5. Trump's big problem as a law & order candidate is that much of the public sees him as an agent of chaos: a divisive figure who always escalates. This please the fans but turns off many more. More thoughts here:https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/trump-advertisement-willie-horton/ …
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End of conversation
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Convention bump.
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2020 America isn't anything close to 1988 America. For many, many reasons
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We should not taken anything for granted, but the caveat I would offer is that some of the polls you are citing reflect post-convention bounces. Insofar as that will happen, they are yet to come.
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Anyone who thinks this will work still doesn’t understand what this pandemic is.
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Because the country is polarized now, I suspect that most of that is already baked in. I doubt there are many undecideds who would be influenced by those types of attacks now.
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