2. At this point in 1988, Dukakis had a lead of 15.3% & Bush steadily destroyed it with a campaign of flag burning demonization: Willie Horton, flag burning, ACLU, capital punishment. Could Trump do the same to Biden?
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3. Clearly Trump's "law and order" push -- including sending federal agents to Portland & Chicago -- is move to reignite culture wars by stoking racist paranoia about urban America. So far it hasn't been working.
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4. Law and order clearly stokes up the right-wing base & is probably keeping Trump from a real free fall. If you go to MAGA-twitter, these folks really are afraid of antifa & BLM violent revolution. But it's not winning the broader middle-ground voter.
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5. Trump's big problem as a law & order candidate is that much of the public sees him as an agent of chaos: a divisive figure who always escalates. This please the fans but turns off many more. More thoughts here:https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/trump-advertisement-willie-horton/ …
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Dukakis 15.3%, period.
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I won't let myself get complacent but I do think more intense partisanship and Trump's very high unfavorables makes it impossible for him to win without a bunch of shenanigans. Unfortunately he seems to think the same thing.
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And a candidate willing to go super Willie Horton on the Democratic Party’s nominee
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The problem is, Trump has gone Willie Horton since 2015. It's not that it doesn't work, but isn't anybody he'd have doing that already priced in?
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Dukakis had a very temporary, but very large, bump after the DNC. It's not really comparable.
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