1. This is Biden's best poll and an outlier. But not by that much! Average of other polls is Biden at +8. So it's difference between large landslide (8%) and super-landslide (15%)https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1283486090855419904 …
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4. It's hard to see the narrowing happening as long as Covid remains unchecked (and Trump has no plan), which in turn will mean economy will continue to flounder. That's what's dragging him down. Moreover, Trump can't hold many rallies or real convention.
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Depends on: 1) what voting restrictions Trump's allies are able to put in place 2) How much help Russia provides
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Only way out is if vaccine comes out in September and somehow his government manages to get it to lots of people by the end of October. Odds: << 2%
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Two potential problems. - Biden has a substantial senior moment in a debate that scares people. - The election is fraudulent in many states due to the pandemic, closed polling places, people waiting in line or unable to vote, mail in ballot chaos etc.
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Yep. There are a lot of unique headwinds for Trump in this race but, still, we've seen candidates with big July leads actually get thumped themselves before. Even if the polls are 100% accurate, there's time for things to shift.pic.twitter.com/WeTLbuzjeg
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