1. This is Biden's best poll and an outlier. But not by that much! Average of other polls is Biden at +8. So it's difference between large landslide (8%) and super-landslide (15%)https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1283486090855419904 …
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3. I would caution against complacent optimism (people need to push hard till the end) but: there's reason to think that narrowing gap to where Trump needs it to be (he can win with Biden at plus 3%-4%) will be hard.
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4. It's hard to see the narrowing happening as long as Covid remains unchecked (and Trump has no plan), which in turn will mean economy will continue to flounder. That's what's dragging him down. Moreover, Trump can't hold many rallies or real convention.
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If the Trump admin can bury the COVID numbers, it will narrow.
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I think the giveaway will be morgues outside of hospitals and entire states grappling with unemployment and lockdowns. Can’t fake his way out of a pandemic whether people see the full numbers or not
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A lead in national polls is nice but need to focus swing states / electoral college
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It may not old. We are undergoing a civilizational crisis. I don't know how it plays out, but I don't know that the rules which cover normal times are applicable.
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Best case scenario is Trump is presiding over an economy with Great Recession unemployment, a pandemic that will have killed 200K mostly through his own incompetence, and a housing and savings crisis GOP senators willfully ignore. But he's running against corporate Dems so...
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so, to be clear, you are using the occasion of good polling numbers for biden to ignore those numbers and ask whether his lead will collapse?
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I remember being told that Hillary's lead over Trump was insurmountable in 2016; how did that turn out?
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Hard to see how the fundamentals and COVID response get *better* for the administration before November. How good is the voter suppression game is the real question, I guess.
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