also confirms that people don't quite believe it which means no complacency
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Best of both worlds.
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Also PA was R+3 in 2016 so this is a wild number
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look at the crosstabs: Trump is -21 with independents and -27 (!!!) with college whites. if that holds (hard to see why it wouldn't) he has no path at all. he can't win with non-college whites alone.
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Cue the Trumpers saying "polls said Hillary would win, too."
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The worrying one for the GOP is Trump at *only* 84 with the GOP. Ive always thought if the GOP number was closer to 80 than 90 Trump was cooked.
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I agree. This one really got my attention and, most importantly, it's NOT an outlier at all, and, as you note, it's from a first-rate group with a good sample.
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Smaller sample size and larger MoE than ideal, but that's state polling for you. And it tries to tease out the shy-voter thing. The questions on favorability, "secret voters" and on who respondents think will win PA (47T-46B) are more interesting than the topline numbers.
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