1. Vice-presidential picks, unless they are truly disastrous (Eagleton, Palin), don't count much in elections. But they are important for unifying parties and allowing them to function as coalitions.
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McGov lost by 23 points; McCain by 7. So close to nothing. And are there reliable surveys that calculate the impact of the VP pick? I suspect that, for nearly all voters, it's just one variable and not the most important one.
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Picking Kaine didn't hurt Clinton much. The campaign strategy that made Kaine look like the right pick hurt her a lot. Similar issue this year.
End of conversation
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The calculus for picking Palin was that it was a high risk high reward selection, which was needed because McCain was down big. Even if it hurt his margins, that calculus could still hold
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