There is little about the current state of things which is a "new cold war," for sure. But I worry that one major dynamic *could* be repeated. The US, unwilling to directly challenge a competing but inferior power, tries to find ways all around the world to combat its "influence"
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Replying to @Vinncent @Max_Fisher
The lack of any real ideological disagreement between China & USA (both capitalist to the bone) makes Cold War analogy suspect in my eyes.
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Replying to @HeerJeet @Max_Fisher
I don't think we have same ideologies. But yes, the main difference for me is that, in the 20th century almost every country had a dedicated party that was ideologically aligned with Moscow. Where is the pro-Beijing party in Brazil, South Africa, Malaysia? Impossible
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I don't know, I actually think it makes a certain amount of sense, mutatis mutandis (which may require a lot of mutanding). You have two powers with visions of a world order trying to leverage different kinds of power to get alignment of other states
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Yes, two different kinds of power. But I think the part of Jeet's point that I agree with is that Beijing is not trying to leverage ideological influence, it's mostly money (with the usa is money + the threat of destruction)
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Yes, and one enormous difference is that the economies of the two powers now are totally intertwined, whereas in USA/USSR conflict there was no economic relationship of any importance
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Right, I think this is what makes a new cold war slightly less likely. The ruling class (or "donor class") or w/e in the United States is materially divided on the issue. Some big players would lose
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Replying to @Vinncent @PatrickIber and
China is not trying to constitute an alternate, socialist world system as the USSR was, nor is it attempting to propose an alternative vision of development in midst of an epochal transformation such as decolonization, which created opportunities for intervention absent today.
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I agree those are the crucial structural differences. This isn't going to be New Cold War. More like the inter-imperial conflicts of the past, maybe.
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