We’ve come to view the death numbers as the less error-prone than confirmed cases, which depend on testing rates, but mounting evidence we really shouldn’t be so sure.https://twitter.com/RMFifthCircuit/status/1244352056326066183 …
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Really hard to track excess deaths when numbers from car crashes, pollutant induced asthma, job-related accidents, etc. are way down. One early study suggests that total deaths are actually 7K - 10K less than would be because of decreased activity
But at the same time people are more prone to death as the healthcare system is struggling to deal with the load, so normally treatable patients may lack the care they need now. Also, the stopping of elective surgery and other long term medical care will also impact health.
@DellAnnaLuca has been doing this for Italian towns in Lombardy: https://pandemic.substack.com/p/dying-for-the-coronavirus-or-with …
(roughly 5X normal death rate in Bergamo, excess deaths roughly 3X COVID-19 deaths)
Yep. Excess deaths will be the most accurate way to compare across regions. A large percentage of deaths will be non-corona and due to the fact hospitals are full but still attributable to corona nonetheless.
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