Large parts of the economy are going to have to be off-and-on sub-par until a vaccine is found or the virus burns out -- shut down for months, re-activated, and then shutting down again. The best solution for the wealthy countries is probably an emergency UBI, funded by debt.
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I'm not, by the way, a huge fan of UBI under normal circumstances. But in this case, it's likely the best way to keep everything functioning & work around disruptions.
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I like the sounds of a nimble economy. How though.
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Isn't the "2 hard months" theory based in part on the idea that at that point there will start to be some immunity among those who've had it and recovered? So there will be rolling waves of people who can safely go back to functioning?
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But previous flus haven't worked like that. Second season of Spanish flu was harsher than the first. No guarantees.
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We are definitely going to get complacent and open up and have an outbreak again
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and...all this will surely happen again.
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I’m referring to opportunistic viruses surfing the global apex predator, not social mitigation & adaptation
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It already is. It’s normal for things to change during time of uncertainty. It would be a warning sign if it didn’t.
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shrink wall street down so far that you can drown it in a bathtub
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Spanish Flu lasted for 2 years. Malnourishment, overcrowded camps and hospitals, poor hygiene promoted bacterial superinfection. Using that information, I would say 12-18 mos. and maybe 6-9 really difficult months. 2 months is ludicrous - there are potentially 100K cases in Ohio.
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