An amazing (and unexplained) reversal: within 24 hours Bernie and Biden essentially switch places in which one has over 60% chances of winning a plurality of delegates.https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/ …
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Replying to @samuelmoyn
There have been only a handful of polls in those 24 hours -- and from low-rated companies using a small base. I don't see how the evidence backs such a swing.
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Replying to @samuelmoyn @HeerJeet
who knows if the projection is right—but surely it makes sense that most people who’re not voting Sanders in the primary, and have been saying they're seeking the “electable” candidate among the rest, would see the consolidation behind Biden, and move en masse to join it
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Replying to @PGourevitch @samuelmoyn
I think that makes logical sense -- but these prediction models are supposed to be based on hard numbers, not just what seems intuitively right!
3 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
I mean, if we're just going by intuition then what some of us have been saying for months is the only way to stop Sanders is for the moderate candidates to coalesce around one candidate.
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