I always like to praise Michael when he writes something sensible, as here.https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1223816098463801345 …
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It's just one fucking poll people, so whatever the results it wouldn't have materially altered the aggregate polls (which are the best source we have), nor the final results (which are in 2 days).
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Replying to @HeerJeet
No, but it would have altered the front-page of Iowa's biggest newspaper tomorrow. I believe there is a decent amount of empirical work suggesting that perceptions of "momentum" on the eve of a vote can aid a candidate
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Replying to @EricLevitz
Maybe. But I think the candidate who is likely to win on Monday will do so not on the back of a perception of momentum but on the back of an unprecedented army of volunteers.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
I mean who knows, but margins matter. There are a lot of undecideds in the existing polls. To the extent that an impulse to back a winner (or whatever) causes some late-deciders to break for the candidate they hear is ahead, it could concievably impact delegate count.
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Replying to @EricLevitz @HeerJeet
Clearly the Pete people fear it will be demotivating for their supporters around the critical margin
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Yeah, I think the big story here is the desperation of the Pete people.
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