I always like to praise Michael when he writes something sensible, as here.https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1223816098463801345 …
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I don't think people particularly care about the poll per se so much as the extremely shady cancellation of the poll
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Assume that a bunch of younger people tweeting about this on a saturday night have some kind of void we are trying to fill.
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it takes like zero effort to tweet, just because people are tweeting doesn't mean they're super invested
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Plus there’s two more Iowa polls coming out tomorrow!
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No, but it would have altered the front-page of Iowa's biggest newspaper tomorrow. I believe there is a decent amount of empirical work suggesting that perceptions of "momentum" on the eve of a vote can aid a candidate
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Maybe. But I think the candidate who is likely to win on Monday will do so not on the back of a perception of momentum but on the back of an unprecedented army of volunteers.
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Because a lot of what goes into politics is narrative driven. That's what polling tries to engineer.
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It's not the poll people are mad about. It's the fake news.
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Not only is it just one poll but it has hardly been infallible in the past; in 2016 it had Trump leading for the GOP caucus. https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/30/donald-trump-reclaims-lead-latest-iowa-poll/79562322/ …
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