You're a fair guy, Jeet.
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"Pulled about even" does sound like he's behind but within the margin of error.
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So pundits have a margin of error as well.
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Thank you. This is a very important point about statistical literacy - error margins are essential to understanding what the data actually means. In this case, Sanders is more likely to be ahead of Biden than not - but far from guaranteed. I would just describe it as "close".
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Yeah, although reporter's do seem to use the MOE selectively.
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While it's correct, CNN's reporting on his polling numbers has become something of a meme, so they deserve no benefit of the doubt
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Even with MoE considered it's not "about even". But it's still reasonably close. But you can't just add MoE to the lower score and call it equal--that's not how it works. Imagine it more like two overlapping bell curves.
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Margin of error means poll’s winner would actually win 95 times out of 100. CNN poll is probably 80 out of 100. Still, Bernie easily most likely to win if elections held today.
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It would have been better if CNN phrased it “statistically-tied.” “Pulled about even” makes it sound like Sanders is almost there, rather than at the upper bound of the margin of error.
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