in a lot of primaries you don't get delegates if you get less than 15%, for one. trump mostly got in the 30s and still won the nomination easily
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Left would be foolish not to brace for a Biden nomination followed by a Trump win. Horrible to contemplate, but it sure seems like the most probable outcome! Certainly a likely enough to merit preparing for: what will messaging/organizing look like under four more years of Trump?
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Inshallah for the real accelerationists
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Hillary was polling more than twice as high as Obama until mid January 2008 when he came out of absolutely nowhere to win the nomination. Until people start paying attention in January I think any predictions are a little hard to make.
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(I’d add that there is more evidence pointing towards Bernie winning than Biden though. I’m sure we are all aware of his incredibly dedicated voting base, which means there is no chance he will drop significantly b4 Iowa. Only way to go is up as he picks up other people’s voters)
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basically. We are replacing one guy demonstrating age-related cognitive decline issues with another.
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