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HeerJeet's profile
Jeet Heer
Jeet Heer
Jeet Heer
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@HeerJeet

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Jeet HeerVerified account

@HeerJeet

1. Writer, The Nation https://www.thenation.com/authors/jeet-heer/ … 2. email: jeetheer1967 at gmail dot com 3. Twitter essayist 4. Drawn by Joe Ollmann

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Joined June 2012

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    1. Itai Sher‏ @itaisher 5 Nov 2019
      Replying to @willwilkinson @gmukunda

      I agree that there must be a foundation for the popularity of those candidates beyond the perception that they can win, but that foundation might be that they adopt broadly popular policies.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. Will Wilkinson  🌐‏Verified account @willwilkinson 5 Nov 2019
      Replying to @itaisher @gmukunda

      There isn't always an independent fact about what policies are popular. Public opinion shifts with changes in party leadership.

      1 reply 2 retweets 12 likes
    3. Itai Sher‏ @itaisher 5 Nov 2019
      Replying to @willwilkinson @gmukunda

      I think there is some scope for leaders to move opinion but it has limits.

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Will Wilkinson  🌐‏Verified account @willwilkinson 5 Nov 2019
      Replying to @itaisher @gmukunda

      The limit is that if you can't win a leadership election having staked out a certain position, then the rest of the party won't fall in line, because you won't be the leader.

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
    5. Itai Sher‏ @itaisher 5 Nov 2019
      Replying to @willwilkinson @gmukunda

      I’m not sure I understand but it can certainly happen that the candidate who wins the primaries may not be the one who would have been most likely to win the general election.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Will Wilkinson  🌐‏Verified account @willwilkinson 5 Nov 2019
      Replying to @itaisher @gmukunda

      But you can't run in the general election unless you can win the primary, so ... ?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Itai Sher‏ @itaisher 5 Nov 2019
      Replying to @willwilkinson @gmukunda

      But this seems to be mixing up the question of who will be the candidate with who you ought to vote for (which I am claiming should depend on your views on electability)

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. Will Wilkinson  🌐‏Verified account @willwilkinson 5 Nov 2019
      Replying to @itaisher @gmukunda

      You ought to vote for the candidate you prefer, which can include electability concerns, but not inherently epistemically dubious electability concerns. Primary election reveal who is ACTUALLY good at winning elections. And then you can vote for the proven electability champ.

      3 replies 2 retweets 10 likes
    9. James Surowiecki‏Verified account @JamesSurowiecki 5 Nov 2019
      Replying to @willwilkinson @itaisher @gmukunda

      Primaries reveal who is good at appealing to the motivated voters in a particular party. They do not reveal who will be best at winning the general election, where it's necessary to win over voters who are not of one's party.

      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
    10. James Surowiecki‏Verified account @JamesSurowiecki 5 Nov 2019
      Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @willwilkinson and

      I also don't understand why you're dismissing head-to-head polls as entrails-reading, when, as Nate Cohn points out, over the last three election cycles they've been as accurate as election-eve polls.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Jeet Heer‏Verified account @HeerJeet 6 Nov 2019
      Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @willwilkinson and

      Polls-in-aggregate are predictive a year out, not specific polls. If you look at NYT Seina poll in aggregate with others this week (Washington Post ABC & Data for Progress) then it looks like a negative outlier.

      5:41 AM - 6 Nov 2019
      • 2 Likes
      • Gautam Mukunda Nate Wilcox
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        2. Will Wilkinson  🌐‏Verified account @willwilkinson 6 Nov 2019
          Replying to @gmukunda @HeerJeet and

          Yes. High-engagement dorks like us have a hard time grokking the fact that the bulk of voters are barely tuned in at this point. We're also going through an impeachment proceeding, which is VERY unusual, and it's not even certain that Trump will survive to the election.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. End of conversation
        1. David Schneider-Joseph‏ @TheDavidSJ 6 Nov 2019
          Replying to @HeerJeet @JamesSurowiecki and

          Biden consistently does about 3 points better in head-to-head poll averages than Warren.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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