The Hillary the hawk article holds up pretty well, I think. It was a tragedy that Clinton decided to offer a foreign policy to the right of Obama's. That contributed to the splintering of votes & lower voter turnout that elected Trump.
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Replying to @HeerJeet @AlexHazanov
Dem turnout wasn’t a problem in most states; in many turnout of Dem-leaning constituencies exceeded 2012. Bigger factor was people voting for Johnson or Putin’s stooge because they fell for stupid shit about Hillary.
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No. It was lower on WI, and Trump also got fewer votes than Romney. But, you know, did you hear about that voter suppression stuff in Milwaukee, Kenosha, etc?
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PA it was fine. Almost everywhere black turnout was down, but in places (like PA) where there was an active field effort & no suppression the drop was small. In MI she ran better than Obama in several of the largest counties, but small rural counties he won in 2008 & lost in...
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Replying to @DanaHoule @PSparding and
...2012 by 5-10 points, in those places she was slaughtered. Like, counties Obama won in 2008 but she lost by 50 points. I guess it was bc the Dem base in places like Roscommon & Hillsdale counties was de-mobilized by the Kissinger stuff.
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Replying to @DanaHoule @PSparding and
BTW, in PA, OH, MN, ME, NY, etc you had the same dynamic of traditionally Repub areas w a decent % of college grads & higher moving several points from Obama to Clinton, but a complete collapse of the Dem vote in the lower educational attainment rural white working class counties
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"For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia" -- Chuck Schumer. His math was a bit faulty.
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Ergo, Henry Kissinger? Who cares what Schumer said publicly. And did he say that before or after the Comey letters?
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Kissinger is a synecdoche for Clinton's all out pursuit of suburban Republican votes (as indicated also by Schumer quote). Comey had impact because those were very voters Clinton was banking on.
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I’ve found that in political & election analyses statistics are valuable, synecdoches not that much. If you actually have some, you know, _numbers_, please use them. If you don’t, you’re just doing Thomas Frank-style political belles lettres.
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Replying to @DanaHoule @HeerJeet and
He has nothing except a jar of Bernie tears.
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End of conversation
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