1. It increasingly feels like Biden, if he's the Democratic nominee, will be Hilary Clinton 2.0, but worse. A campaign based on personal revulsion against Trump, nostalgia for normal politics, & outreach to moderate Republicans.https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1124667509242777600 …
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8. I have no trouble imagining Biden winning a reprise of 2016, with Obama coalition & weaker working class support offset by suburban moderates. But such a coalition seems unstable, unlikely to survive long without antipathy of Trump. Those moderates will edge back to GOP.
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9. The stuff Biden will say to win suburban Republicans will dampen enthusiasm among young & among working class, if not in 2020 then soon after in subsequent elections. And GOP will be able to run candidates who borrow Trump's politics without his personal failings.
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End of conversation
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think this last point is fair
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Now that makes sense and is a very good reason for him to, frankly, drop out. Maybe he's trying to expose Bernie. Nah that's wishful thinking. Joe thinks he's entitled to the Oval Office, which is exactly why he shouldn't be anywhere near it.
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I don’t think he’ll make it close to a nominating convention
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Biden and Pelosi’s positions risk causing disaffection among the base that does the hard work (canvasing) to turn out elections. Anti Trump was not a motivator in 2016.
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It’s hard to argue with this. In fact, it’s so hard to argue with this that one wonders whether Republicans should prefer a Biden victory as an opportunity for a low-stakes reset.
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Pundits do not choose the candidates, the American people do. This time we will choose thoughtfully and not be told who we must choose.
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The key of 2018 was the independents that lean R voted heavier D. I suspect it was Trump but also protecting pre-existing conditions and moderate gun control here.
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And even this may be too optimistic. Neoliberalism will not be enough to defeat 21st century fascism.
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