1. It increasingly feels like Biden, if he's the Democratic nominee, will be Hilary Clinton 2.0, but worse. A campaign based on personal revulsion against Trump, nostalgia for normal politics, & outreach to moderate Republicans.https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1124667509242777600 …
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3. Both Clinton (with her alt-right speech) & Biden (invoking Charlottesville in announcing his campaign) had campaigns using rhetorical anti-racism as glue to hold together Democratic coalition. This type of performative wokeness is, alas, of limited electoral utility.
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4. To be clear, Democrats need to have an anti-racist message but it rings false from white candidates who have the track record Hillary Clinton & (much more so) Biden have. GOP discouragement campaign aimed at black voters in 2016 focused on this & will again in 2020 with Biden
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5. It's not just Biden. It's the Democratic leadership class. Pelosi is also committed to making 2016 a rerun of 2020 with Dems making a pitch to moderate suburban Republicans.https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1124720372547510275 …
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6. The operating theory of the Democratic leadership seems to be that the problem in 2016 was Hillary Clinton was a woman, so if you run the same campaign against Trump with a male candidate (Biden), you'll win.
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7. Let's say Biden is the candidate & he runs (as he wants to do) a campaign aimed at suburban moderates. 2 questions: 1. can he beat Trump? (Yes, because Dem coalition will be super-mobilized by anti-Trump feelings) 2. Will victory be lasting? (No.)
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8. I have no trouble imagining Biden winning a reprise of 2016, with Obama coalition & weaker working class support offset by suburban moderates. But such a coalition seems unstable, unlikely to survive long without antipathy of Trump. Those moderates will edge back to GOP.
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9. The stuff Biden will say to win suburban Republicans will dampen enthusiasm among young & among working class, if not in 2020 then soon after in subsequent elections. And GOP will be able to run candidates who borrow Trump's politics without his personal failings.
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End of conversation
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These people don't care about facts . They will take every chance they get to take a jab at Clinton.
End of conversation
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He is more likely to win the Democratic primary, and also more likely to lose the election to Trump lol
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