My simplified US political history of the last 20 years is Bush v. Gore => Bush; Bush + 9/11 => War in Iraq; War in Iraq = disaster; war in Iraq + disaster => increasing fanaticism in R base + loss of party control; low popularity of war => McCain/Palin => more fanaticism
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I believe you gentlemen have pretty well summed it up.
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I also think you have to emphasize the GOP’s even more long-standing racial politics and dog-whistle tactics. And the role of evangelicals + Fox News + Talk Radio all of which predate Iraq. But I wholeheartedly agree with the general premise here.
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