But difference in orbital inclination makes the risk still smaller, ryt?
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Replying to @Vardan_here @planet4589 and
Correct. I'm not sure about the exact inclination of the destroyed satellite (most likely ~90 deg since it was a weather satellite) but it's extremely unlikely to be in such an inclination as to make the risk greater than effectively 0%.
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Replying to @HedgeDogGaming @Vardan_here and
The inclination was 96.6 degrees. It was not a weather satellite (the Chinese ASAT took out a weather sat. Microsat-R seems likely to have been a dedicated target satellite)
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Replying to @planet4589 @Vardan_here and
Misleading headline in Ars Technica, my bad! Still not wrong about the inclination, though
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Replying to @HedgeDogGaming @Vardan_here and
But having a different inclination doesn't save you. The orbits intersect - in particular, objects in the Microsat-R orbit but with slightly increased apogee will potentially intersect the ISS orbit at high speed
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Replying to @planet4589 @Vardan_here and
It doesn't "save", it reduces the risk to the points of intersection. The chance of a high energy piece of debris to cross the intersection at the exact same time as the ISS is effectively 0.
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Replying to @planet4589 @HedgeDogGaming and
Whatever the inclination, if the altitudes match,that means they come in a plane. So, there are chances for hitting.
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Replying to @Vardan_here @planet4589 and
True, but you'd need an exact altitude match, hence - unlikely.
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Replying to @HedgeDogGaming @Vardan_here and
Unlikely for any one piece, but for a cloud of hundreds tracked, thousands untracked small bits, and many opportunities over a period of weeks to months, the probability of >= 1 collision is not so tiny
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We don't know enough about the debris cloud but I agree with the general idea. Hope the ISS stays safe! An impact like this could be really bad...
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