Raine says 40 percent increase in arrests for every 5 microgram increase in utero. I'd say that's good evidence for a causal relationship. Any contentions?
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Replying to @Race__Realist @GeneFinding and
That's a correlation. There could also be causation there, but it's fundamentally measuring a correlation.
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Replying to @HbdNrx @GeneFinding and
Here's the reference. Of course it's just a correlation, and there is evidence that this correlation is causal since we know the effects it has on the brain.http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0050101 …
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Replying to @Race__Realist @GeneFinding and
Did they test the parental IQ? (hint:no)
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Replying to @Race__Realist @GeneFinding and
Fine, they did, at least partly (they're doing better than expected). Look at this. I notice a prenatal lead correlation, but I also notice not much correlation with average childhood blood lead. Definite correlation between maternal IQ and no arrests as well:pic.twitter.com/5Fvlcr6iq4
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Replying to @HbdNrx @Race__Realist and
Just looking at raw numbers isn't the way to analyze this stuff though. This is what we have statistics for.pic.twitter.com/rNR7QcTDNG
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Replying to @GeneFinding @Race__Realist and
I'm glad that they're trying to adjust for maternal IQ there, but we're still not getting all the way to causation here.
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Replying to @HbdNrx @Race__Realist and
Do you want brain scans or biopsies to actually see if these people had some kind of pathology due to the lead exposure? Cause that's where it looks like you're going
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The "ever arrested" group here is only 136, they're missing paternal IQ, and even the maternal IQ and SES adjustments may not catch enough of the potential confounding. 1.4 ratio is just too high for a small lead increase like that
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