When the big media companies model expected revenues for new works, do you think they project more than a minuscule amount of revenues more than 20 years after publication?
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Replying to @HbdNrx
it's a fat tail phenomenon - modal work? zero revenue. mickey mouse? star wars?
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Replying to @QuasLacrimas
They're going to discount revenues out that far so much that they're going to add less than 1%
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Replying to @HbdNrx
Not rly - at 95% annual discounting a significant fraction of the net present value is after the 20th year, can't remember how to sum the series tho
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Replying to @QuasLacrimas
I'd be surprised. The vast majority of revenues come in the first couple of years.
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Replying to @HbdNrx
two different things - when are most revenues earned, and how much do they discount future revenue streams. If revenue is constant, first 20 yrs only represent 70% of present value
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Replying to @QuasLacrimas
Oh, sure, 30% with constant revenues is reasonable, but nobody ever forecasts constant revenues for these works
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Replying to @HbdNrx @QuasLacrimas
(and tbh even the revenues they do project that far will probably be discounted more than that. They probably just cut off the model about that far out)
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Replying to @HbdNrx @QuasLacrimas
I guess what I really mean is a combination of: 1. Almost all the revenues are soon after publication 2. Discounting would be higher for highly variable revenues like this compared to steady revenues like real estate or bonds
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Replying to @HbdNrx
hmm we'll agree to disagree on this - bottom line remains, it's not politically easy and if Trump tried it every facebooker and redditor in existence would suddenly discover the principled case for eternal copyright
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Oh it would be a lot more popular than you think. There was a lot of popular opposition to the extension in 1998
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