It's all over on Wednesday so unless you're a campaign manager deciding where to direct resources you shouldn't get excited period
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Replying to @InaneImperium
Well it's easy to get excited or discouraged early, and some people are playing things like predictit.
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Replying to @HbdNrx
You should be betting against the candidate you want to win, it's utterly simple and I can't understand why no gets that
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Replying to @HbdNrx
Let's say it's worth $100,000 to me for Trump to win. Even if a pro-Trump bet has a positive expected value, a hundred dollar bet is
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Replying to @InaneImperium @HbdNrx
the equivalent of (-50100, +50100)... maybe I think the second outcome is more likely, but it has to be significantly more likely
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Replying to @InaneImperium @HbdNrx
Betting against Trump moves it to (-49900, +49900), which hedges the bet in the correct direction
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Replying to @InaneImperium
oh, I was thinking more that maybe we expect to be naturally overrating the odds of our favored candidate
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but that particular bias isn't necessarily clear to me
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Replying to @HbdNrx
The bottom line is that people treat this kind of betting more like a demonstration of faith than a financial decision
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Replying to @InaneImperium @HbdNrx
So it's useless as a predictor cuz no one bets rationally... but if ppl did bet rationally it would still be useless as a predictor
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End of conversation
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