I've seen people get excited about early voting stats before, only to be disappointed by final results. Polling is a better indicator.
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Let's say it's worth $100,000 to me for Trump to win. Even if a pro-Trump bet has a positive expected value, a hundred dollar bet is
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the equivalent of (-50100, +50100)... maybe I think the second outcome is more likely, but it has to be significantly more likely
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Betting against Trump moves it to (-49900, +49900), which hedges the bet in the correct direction
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oh, I was thinking more that maybe we expect to be naturally overrating the odds of our favored candidate
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but that particular bias isn't necessarily clear to me
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The bottom line is that people treat this kind of betting more like a demonstration of faith than a financial decision
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So it's useless as a predictor cuz no one bets rationally... but if ppl did bet rationally it would still be useless as a predictor
End of conversation
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