I've seen people get excited about early voting stats before, only to be disappointed by final results. Polling is a better indicator.
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You should be betting against the candidate you want to win, it's utterly simple and I can't understand why no gets that
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hmm, I don't know about that
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explain why?
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Let's say it's worth $100,000 to me for Trump to win. Even if a pro-Trump bet has a positive expected value, a hundred dollar bet is
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the equivalent of (-50100, +50100)... maybe I think the second outcome is more likely, but it has to be significantly more likely
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Betting against Trump moves it to (-49900, +49900), which hedges the bet in the correct direction
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oh, I was thinking more that maybe we expect to be naturally overrating the odds of our favored candidate
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