just looking at the polls
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Replying to @HbdNrx
Surely you are more numerate than that. The polls will continue to fluctuate wildly for two months
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Replying to @InaneImperium
I know polls fluctuate a lot. I also know that polls overall provide a good picture of the odds.
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Replying to @HbdNrx @InaneImperium
if the polls were in general showing Trump behind by 2, I wouldn't be too worried
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Replying to @HbdNrx @InaneImperium
A lot can happen bw now and Nov, but let's be real: Trump needs to change the dynamic of the race.
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Replying to @andersonfan16 @HbdNrx
Why? A straight-up demographic reading of it has Trump crushing Hillary w/ 65% of white vote, which is attainable
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Replying to @InaneImperium @HbdNrx
Sure it's attainable, but not if Trump continues playing into media's caricature of him as a big meanie. Whites...
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...don't like that. It's stupid, but that's American politics
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Replying to @andersonfan16 @HbdNrx
Idk, we'll see. Tbh I don't think people really give a damn. How many 'kwans do you think know who Khizr Khan is?
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Replying to @InaneImperium @HbdNrx
Evidence is that people vote on issues/ideology and perceptions of economic (mis)management (i.e. macro performance)
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seems like they vote an awful lot based on identity
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Replying to @HbdNrx
Baseline, identity/ideology is important, but the ∂ from year to year is mostly economics plus party fatigue
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