So the odds aren't looking so good for Trump right now. I'm definitely not giving up, but I am thinking about what might happen.
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I'd be very careful about relying on any "corrections". Didn't work out in 2012
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the polls immediately prior to the elections were pretty accurate
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the journalists were indeed completely biased, of course
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even the very early polls showing a Trump lead among the GOP candidates turned out correct
End of conversation
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A lot can happen bw now and Nov, but let's be real: Trump needs to change the dynamic of the race.
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Why? A straight-up demographic reading of it has Trump crushing Hillary w/ 65% of white vote, which is attainable
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Sure it's attainable, but not if Trump continues playing into media's caricature of him as a big meanie. Whites...
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...don't like that. It's stupid, but that's American politics
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Idk, we'll see. Tbh I don't think people really give a damn. How many 'kwans do you think know who Khizr Khan is?
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Evidence is that people vote on issues/ideology and perceptions of economic (mis)management (i.e. macro performance)
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seems like they vote an awful lot based on identity
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Baseline, identity/ideology is important, but the ∂ from year to year is mostly economics plus party fatigue
End of conversation
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