It's been over 7 years since a recession. The Fed has effectively maintained stability over that time. Few businesses have failed in recent
stability is not always desirable since it allows malinvestment to continue. Bad businesses do need to fail, and they eventually will.
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I believe our economy currently has a lot of malinvestment, and shaking it out is going to be a rough transition. No matter who becomes
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president, I think a recession in the next two years is likely. Trump's policies are particularly likely to result in a shakeup--
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a reduction in immigration will put pressure on housing prices, and Trump is not focused on the welfare of Wall Street and the big banks.
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So Trump will be looking at some deflationary pressures during his term. If these conditions materialize,
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he should propose inflationary policies like sending a $3000 check to every citizen.
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What he really needs to avoid in the next recession is simply caving in to Wall Street and the big banks for stability at any cost.
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One of the big things that's been going on with the economy for years is that debt levels are very high. This is a drag on the economy.
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Debt levels can be reduced with deleveraging, defaults, or inflation.
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I prefer inflation as the best option for reducing debt while screwing the banks.
End of conversation
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