2. We will see bitcoins become worthless. No inherent value and no force backing them.
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3. Quantum computing will never be useful for real problems. Scaling up is too hard, too much noise. See https://www.math.ucdavis.edu/~deloera/TEACHING/VIDEOS/Kalai-Lectures/hkD.pdf …
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4. We won't see cost-effective fusion power.
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Not making a prediction on genetic eng. Yes, we can do embryo selection. Not holding my breath on general purpose human CRISPR, but maybe
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5. Intelligent life on Earth will never escape and survive outside the solar system. We're stuck with this sun.
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6. We won't see artificial uteruses in our lifetime. Maybe the distant future.
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7. Apps will improve and contain more features, and more apps will be available and affordable.
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@HbdNrx 1) U hav no basis for this;seen the latest AI progress? 3) is not a slam dunk argument. Scott's countered well 4) U know too little. -
@botminds we'll see. I think these are all pretty safe bets, with #4 perhaps the most likely to be wrong. -
@HbdNrx Given evidence, #1 is currently most likely to be wrong. Humans of the Gaps eh? With each passing year the gaps continue to shrink. -
@botminds There have been predictions since the 50s that AI was just around the corner. Nothing has worked out yet. -
@HbdNrx Yes,they overestimated. Chess,Go:vanished gaps.Speech,image captioning,LSTM lang models,program induction,autocars: gr8 progress all -
@botminds all of those are nice but nowhere near general purpose AI
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@HbdNrx the future is probabilistic and unpredictable so no AI seems likely. Still Moore's law will continue for quite some time.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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