Iowa is notoriously hard to poll--many surprises in the past. Trump never had a substantial lead in IA and only a small lead in the most
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recent polls. Trump's support reminds me a lot of Dean 04, and Dean's performance in IA was a big disappointment.
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Caucus dynamics favor second choice candidates, and the social pressure of caucuses isn't good for Trump.
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All that said, I think Trump will win NH barring a major polling collapse now, and I think he still has a good chance of winning the nom.
End of conversation
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