The even-more-obv solution they claim to exclude (but idk how yet) is eugenic conditions became dysgenic post 1975
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Replying to @QuasLacrimas @HbdNrx
(from the abstract they claim they excluded a selection effect but idk how - you can’t compare 1st/2nd kids for families that don’t have more kids)
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Replying to @QuasLacrimas
Siblings in the same family should average out to the same genetic potential IQ
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Replying to @HbdNrx
i fall for frequentist traps all the time but: if i have a family, 1 kid, iq=x, and the avg iq of families that have >1 kid =y, shouldn’t reversion put 2nd kid’s iq b/w x & y ?
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Replying to @QuasLacrimas
Not sure what you mean. What I meant is that kid 1 and kid 2 should receive some random assortment from the same set of genes so aside from the possibility of more mutational load in kid 2 their expected IQ from genetics should be the same.
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Replying to @HbdNrx
but under eu/dys-genic conditions, the mere fact that there is a second kid provides you with additional info about mean familial traits
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Replying to @QuasLacrimas
ok I see what you mean. Sure, the people with more kids may be dumber, but this is still comparing kid 1 to kid 2 to kid 3 within each family. If we take kid 1 minus kid 2 for each family, we get a set like +5,-7,+3 etc. If we average that out we expect approx zero
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Replying to @HbdNrx
You may be right but spell it out for me: are you assuming something like “kid 2 provides info via fecundity on family iq but kid 3 provides no further info”? (i know you don’t mean that but unsure what you mean by “averages to zero”)
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Replying to @QuasLacrimas
I'm thinking of these kids as independent random draws essentially. I suppose if the second depends on the first in some way (as in my other tweet), there could be some effect here. If they are independent, I'm not sure how we get what you're thinking of
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Replying to @HbdNrx
but they aren’t independent random draws bc not all families make a second draw - i think we both get the difficulty, hopefully someone will audit their econometrics and set me straight
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But I think what you're saying is something like this: You have three sets of parents: 80 IQ, 100, and 120. Each 80 set has 3 kids. Each 100 set has 2. Each 120 set has 1. Kid 1 minus kid 2 in the 100 set should still average to zero. Same for kids in the 80 set
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