IIRC the Dems tend to have an advantage in generic ballot polls that doesn’t translate into actual candidates. That, plus the generic ballot being tied/in favor of republicans up until the past week or so, makes me think this might be a fluke.
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No, generic ballot has been against the GOP for some time while I think, and it was a good predictor in some previous years. However, I think this year it's less meaningful due to Trump's social effects. Also I think it will tighten up as we get closer to the election.
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It had gradually tightened up thru May, & then the gap returned with the latest round of polls. As for the generic ballot advantages, see here: https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/news/elections/2018/03/29/historically-generic-ballot-polls-overstate-midterm-support-democratic-party/amp/ …
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Agree regarding your last two points.
End of conversation
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