Harry Spoelstra

@HarrySpoelstra

Harry Spoelstra MD PhD Vascular Surgeon,VaricoseVeinTreatment,Science,Nature,Weather,Stratosphere,News,Healthcare,Universe

Knokke,a spot in this Universe
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Joined March 2011
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  1. 9 hours ago

    Pity we don't have 10hPa wind and Height charts yet, Oper GFS-fv306 suggests the approaching end of with a new back warming, still far away but a possibility.

    1 reply 4 likes
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  2. 11 hours ago

    After the Split on Jan 3th(EC), downwelling is next focus and this seems to start without enthousiasm,only around 240H some modest support arrives at 1hPA. But still too little! Interesting times!

    2 replies 4 retweets 11 likes
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  3. Dec 26

    The reversal has started, 10hPa, 60°N and lets see how this evolves in the coming day's!

    Polar night jet stream has already reversed at some places: this sounding from Bering Sea shows easterly zonal wind at 10 hPa. As the progresses, we expect that the zonal wind turns easterly on the average on the whole latitude (which is 60°N).
    4 retweets 24 likes
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  4. Dec 26

    Still 'n amazing 47/65 are going for a Split (240h) at 10hPa , but sadly, this is without EC model input

    1 like
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  5. Dec 26

    Now that we have our , the Major on its way(31/12 or1/1), maybe followed by the Split( ) we need Downwelling(step5) for the impact of all this on our weather!

    And remember we live at Troposphere 1000mb , is at 10mb , U anomalies circulations , related to SSW MUST NOW PROPAGATE DOWNWARDS to establisch HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKINGS at 500mb/1000mb to bring severe winter at great parts of N-H continents !!
    1 retweet 4 likes
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  6. Dec 25

    The in its struggle to survive after another attack. Towards a real wave-2 Major ?

    What a mess.
    1 reply 3 likes
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  7. Dec 25

    Cards looking to come together towards a real Major SSW, not only with a mean zonal wind reversal at 10hPa, but with a Split too, first week 2019. Fingers crossed

    Building agreement now on a , as guidance is coming into agreement on a zonal wind reversal and SPV split. Building support among ensembles, too, for W2 amplitude to increase in the period near 1/5 (SPV K.O?)
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    5 likes
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  8. Retweeted
    Dec 25

    The MJO forecast divergence between the GFS & Euro is nuts. While I think the GFS is overzealous, I actually think it'll be closer to reality because the SSWE will accelerate the BDC, cooling/raising the tropical tropopause, effectively amplifying tropical convection & the MJO.

    11 replies 22 retweets 80 likes
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  9. Dec 25

    Impressive,18/21 members GFS00(10hPa) go for a Split Jan4th(240H), GEOS5 following Really going to happen? Fingers crossed and let’s see what EC is going to bring?

    2 replies 4 retweets 19 likes
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  10. Dec 25

    Impressive footage with pyroclastic flows

    2:16
    Anak Krakatau eruption 23.12.2018 Spectacular footage taken from Susi Air. Video source: RRINet
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    2 likes
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  11. Retweeted
    Dec 23

    I suspect this , PV split with short duration , to rebound , to split than again by new warmings and than massive /greater duration and to sink into continents and drifting ! but that is only intuitie based.

    1 reply 2 retweets 17 likes
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  12. Dec 25

    It starts round 240h, thanks to a new wave-1( ) with support from wave-2 event. Hope EC and GFS will confirm in the coming days?

    1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
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  13. Dec 25

    1.Merry Christmas All, what a GFS00 run. At 300h, showing double High and actually a triple Spllt with (u)60°=-5,6m/s evolving to possible interesting situation( ongoing ),

    1 reply 4 retweets 16 likes
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  14. Dec 23

    Impressive, but will this bring us the Split begin January, models are still deliberating

    "SSWs are the most dramatic meteorological phenomena in the middle atmosphere." "SSWs are among the most impressive dynamical events in the physical climate system." With these words begin two scientific papers, and no wonder. ~100°C temperature gradient above North Pole.
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    1 retweet 2 likes
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  15. Dec 22

    This is a beginnig, hopefully more on its way!

    Monster -NAO Europe to be troughed = real winter looming in Jan 2019 ? We have to wait for more confirmations/runs like these kind ! Hang on Europe,.
    3 retweets 18 likes
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  16. Retweeted
    Dec 22

    Watch how forecasts from CFSv2 for January 2019 have shifted from a +NAO to a -NAO in the last week. This is likely in response to the growing signal for stratospheric disruption... and why the stratosphere is very important for your day-to-day life this winter!

    3 replies 28 retweets 107 likes
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  17. Dec 22

    Much of what the upcoming with possible Split will do with our weather,depends on how the split develops and here comes a big difference between EC and GFS/GFS-FV3 at MT

    1 retweet 9 likes
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  18. Dec 22

    Charts are moving....and hopefully with the upcoming split, thxs to the

    Stunning GFS 06z run , now we must get more of these kind runs !
    6 likes
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  19. Retweeted
    Dec 21

    Well that escalated quickly. On yesterday's GFS operational there wasn't even a forecast of a split while on today's ensembles it hows up in the five day mean averages! Even suggested in the CFS, something I don't ever recall.

    26 replies 45 retweets 178 likes
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  20. Dec 21

    It's getting hot,not only at 10hPa(), but also with GFS/FV3GFS/EC, as of today,all going for the Major SSW, round NewYear, ready for some Champagne?

    1 reply 2 retweets 13 likes
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