Want to know why China won't become the world's leading power? And why that makes it MORE dangerous right now? Any why conventional wisdom about what causes great-power war is wrong? Check out my new book, The Danger Zone, co-written with Mike Beckley.
Follow
Hal Brands
@HalBrands
Prof JHU-SAIS, scholar AEI, Bloomberg Opinion columnist. bloomberg.com/opinion Co-author of The Lessons of Tragedy.
Hal Brands’s Tweets
The war in #Ukraine shows what a world without American power would look like — and what it looks like when 🇺🇸 uses its unmatched power well.
It also shows that the world won’t be truly multipolar anytime soon.
2
21
76
7
32
66
1
6
20
In 2022, I wanted to fill some gaps in my knowledge and read to find new perspectives. These were some of my best reads.
What books helped you see new perspectives?
2
5
35
Brilliant piece by 🎯 As Brzezinsky stated in '94: Without 🇺🇦, 🇷🇺 ceases to be an empire. With 🇺🇦, 🇷🇺 automatically becomes an empire. The war in 🇺🇦 will shape the global order for decades!
Quote Tweet
How the war ends will determine whether aggressive autocracies are seen as preeminent or pathetic, balance of power in Eastern Europe, strength and cohesion of Russo-Chinese axis, and more. Once again, Ukraine has key role in a struggle that will shape contours of global order.
Show this thread
3
20
90
Great article to start the year from . My version of this thought is that we're not in WW3. We're still only in WW1...
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl via
6
15
Ukraine as the key battlefield for the future global order.
Quote Tweet
How the war ends will determine whether aggressive autocracies are seen as preeminent or pathetic, balance of power in Eastern Europe, strength and cohesion of Russo-Chinese axis, and more. Once again, Ukraine has key role in a struggle that will shape contours of global order.
Show this thread
2
15
96
How the war ends will determine whether aggressive autocracies are seen as preeminent or pathetic, balance of power in Eastern Europe, strength and cohesion of Russo-Chinese axis, and more. Once again, Ukraine has key role in a struggle that will shape contours of global order.
8
58
224
Show this thread
In the world wars, conquering Ukraine was central to German plans for creating a Eurasian empire. In the Cold War, Ukrainian independence helped seal fate of the USSR. Today, Ukraine is on the front lines of a new defining global struggle, between democracy and authoritarianism.
3
58
242
Show this thread
23
211
659
Show this thread
Reading Danger Zone by , who is pretty brutal in his realism about China’s 1) demographic collapse and 2) worsening geographic and economic challenges.
Solid read.
4
9
53
Show this thread
I'm looking forward to THE NEW MAKERS OF MODERN STRATEGY (2023) edited by 's , especially the essays of many friends and colleagues: , , , , , and many others. 20/x
2
3
20
Show this thread
I just finished “Danger Zone” by & Michael Beckley. Strong counter argument to the Great Power Competition long trajectory narrative. Instead they argue the turning point may well come this decade. The clock is tiktoking.
3
9
34
Our episode earlier this year with was one of our most important of the year. Hal argued that China is no longer a rising power but rather a peaking one, and he explains why this makes China even more dangerous. Listen in either a second time or for a first time.
Quote Tweet
BEST OF 2022: "[A] major Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a massive undertaking, according to some estimates. It would make D-Day, the allied invasion of Normandy, look minor by comparison." @HalBrands
link.chtbl.com/IntelMatters
2
18
54
and Michael Beckley’s new book (Danger Zone) makes the same argument convincingly. If you haven’t read it, I highly recommend it.
2
1
2
Show this thread
No new episode this week as the School of War global headquarters staff take a break. But check out some great recent shows, like last week's conversation with Jonathan Kirshner on the merits of "classical realism" versus the shortcomings of "neorealism."
1
10
12
Show this thread
Remember Pearl Harbor?
The US may be even less prepared for war with China today
11
17
35
In #DangerZone, and Michael Beckley provide a provocative and urgent analysis of the US–China rivalry and argue that the likelihood of war is frighteningly real.
Order your copy of Danger Zone ⬇️
1
5
8
Show this thread
In The Twilight Struggle, great power competition expert argues that America should look to the history of the Cold War for lessons in how to succeed in great-power rivalry today.
Order The Twilight Struggle ⬇️
1
3
7
Show this thread
4
10
32
knows what he’s talking about so hey Oz MSM could we do a reset of the reset please?
2
3
10
Show this thread
Future of South Pacific is looking a lot like its past. During WWII, Japanese expansion threatened Australia’s existence. Today, Australian officials fear a power-hungry China wants to menace its vital sea lanes.
2
15
31
"China’s global reach is more pervasive than that of any prior illiberal power"...using "powerful carrots and sticks to silence free speech far beyond its borders"- tour de force in by Michael Beckley & journalofdemocracy.org/chinas-threat-
Quote Tweet
See these diverse @JoDemocracy @ThinkDemocracy resources on the Chinese party state's outward-facing engagement and how this challenges democracy around the world. @NEDLibrary-curated info on ideas and norms, tech, media, and propaganda-and ways to respond ned.org/ideas/democrac
Show this thread
1
10
15
A new piece by Mike Beckley and me, drawing on our book, Danger Zone
1
7
6
Show this thread
We should have called it "the meddling kingdom." A new piece on why and how China is taking the offensive in its global fight against democracy
4
61
114
Show this thread
In recent decades, academic history has become steadily less accessible to students and the general public--and steadily less relevant to addressing critical matters of politics, diplomacy, war, and peace. What we see now is the sad result.
3
11
26
Show this thread
Yes, tenure-track lines are down across many academic disciplines. Yes, history has been hit by exogenous pressures, like 2008 financial crisis, COVID, etc. And yet the historical profession has been its own worst enemy--it has been engaged in an act of slow-motion suicide.
1
3
15
Show this thread
These statistics are a devastating commentary on the state of the historical profession in the US. And it's mostly the profession's fault.
Quote Tweet
So this chart, which I made using the numbers in S. Mintz' recent Inside Higher Ed. piece (link and original source below) on the change in permanent faculty for 14 history departments is catastrophic.
We, as a field, as a discipline, should be discussing almost nothing else. 1/
Show this thread
3
9
31
Show this thread
Congratulations to AWC alumna for publishing her recent article in the Journal of Conflict Resolution!
Quote Tweet
I am excited to share my latest article in JCR (co-authored with Dr. Nilay Saiya). We hope it will add a layer to our understanding of the relationship between democracy and terrorism and help explain previous studies' conflicting results. 
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/003
6
If Putin starts playing his diplomatic cards more adeptly, in other words, West and Ukraine would face a very different war.
1
18
Show this thread
But this could change the diplomatic context of the war, setting off a global PR battle over who is responsible for prolonging it, and giving advocates of negotiated settlement (e.g., Macron) something they have lacked so far--any semblance of cooperation from Putin.
1
2
17
Show this thread
Where things get really tricky is if Putin proposes cease-fire in place, as some US officials think he might. Very cynical--he just wants time to rearm and then renew hostilities when ready. And Ukraine would rightly refuse cease-fire that freezes current lines.
2
1
16
Show this thread
Add to that pitiful condition of many Russian forces, and Ukraine will be tempted to launch a new offensive, maybe trying to sever land bridge to Crimea. But it has to weight the risks of waiting against the perhaps-greater risks of a failed offensive.
1
1
14
Show this thread
And Kiev has to worry that even appearance that war is settling into a stalemate will embolden people calling for a diplomatic settlement.
2
2
12
Show this thread
Ukraine has dilemmas of its own. Solidity of US support not assured, given new GOP-led House. US has signaled it may not underwrite long war to retake all Ukrainian territory (see comments by Milley and Blinken).
2
1
17
Show this thread
Putin finally appears to be see that his objectives outstrip his means. So he is trying to hunker down, wait for mobilization to bear fruit, and brutalize Ukraine w infrastructure attacks. If Russia can get through winter, he hopes, Ukraine and West will tire of a protracted war
1
1
18
Show this thread
Winter will be brutal in Ukraine, but it won't see the war grind to a halt. Winter is a good time to attack--the ground hardens, armored vehicles can go off-road--and both sides will confront crucial decisions.
1
1
15
Show this thread