I'm tired of hearing about "black swans". I still don't know a decent real world example of one. Over and over the claimed "black swan" was some obvious thing coming down the pike that loads of people anticipated.
Nassim N.... Taleb’s ‘Black Swan’ reveals a lot about the horizon of its author’s cognition. It was full of accounts of things like ‘pizza’ showing up unaccountably at his house (him having called Domino’s 30 minutes prior). He has almost no understanding of delayed effects.
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The whole point of a black swan is that it can be anticipated but highly unlikely ..
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Example? People try to pretend the unfolding of the financial crisis was "unlikely" but I had been reading for years about exactly how it was building and which policies were driving its formation.
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remember that talebs central mode of communication is heuristics. some may have seen the signs but the average person, ie the ones most affected, did not or more importantly Could not.
End of conversation
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My friend you understan time is flat circle
and neotectonic cause and effect thinking suffer phallisy of post hoc air go ham hock.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Imbecile, pizza is fat tailed
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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The real swindle is the fact that he renamed the Peso Problem. Granted he did a lot of interesting stuff as well but still.
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