So provide me some sort of principle for when I'm allowed to have a well-formed opinion based on past experience and strong circumstantial evidence and when I'm not.
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Replying to @RogueNotary @GodDoesnt
Could you not just say 'There's strong circumstantial evidence for this and much precedent in the form of other cases.'
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But maintain a personal commitment to presumption of innocence when literally no way for someone to defend themselves, outwardly anyway.
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Replying to @HPluckrose @GodDoesnt
You're urging a principle of restraint in expressing an opinion, but what's the principle for when that should be applied? There is no criminal case here.
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Replying to @HPluckrose @GodDoesnt
What are the boundaries of this principle of not expressing a rational opinion for fear of being 1/400,000th of a dogpile? Whenever prison time is at stake? A job? Shame? Hurt feelings?
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Replying to @RogueNotary @GodDoesnt
I'm not opposing expressing rational opinions.
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Replying to @HPluckrose @GodDoesnt
Okay, well, if you want to put meat on the bones of your take here, go ahead, but I'm not going to keep firing shots in the dark until I have its outline.
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Replying to @RogueNotary @GodDoesnt
I'm not sure what's unclear tho. I am disagreeing that we should think statistically abt guilt going on previous cases and saying that stating what is known & unknown without assuming guilt or innocence is ideal.
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Replying to @HPluckrose @GodDoesnt
You're arguing against inductive reasoning. The presence or absence of characteristics of previous cases that make them reliable--multiple accusers, thorough reporting, corroboration, etc.--are what make a putative case more or less reliable.
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This would seem to be a different thing tho. In that case, it is the evidence rather than the statistics that matter, isn't it? I'm lost now.
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