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Replying to @HPluckrose
Not sure how best to elaborate.. People often intuitively imagine religious claims are roughly 50% likely because they're either true or 1/2
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Replying to @Intrinsic29 @HPluckrose
they're not true, but that's like saying a 20 sided die has a 50% chance of rolling a 7 because it'll either roll a 7 or it won't. 2/2
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Replying to @Intrinsic29 @HPluckrose
There being so many distinct possibilities which cannot all simultaneously be true says a lot about the probability of claims w/o evidence.
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Replying to @Intrinsic29
But one possibility can be so much more likely than all the rest.
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Replying to @HPluckrose
Ya, if we have evidence for it. If we have no evidence for a religious claim, it suffers from this problem of ~infinite other possibilities
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Replying to @Intrinsic29 @HPluckrose
We can also further calculate probability *comparatively* based on the number of assumptions a hypothesis makes without evidence.
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Replying to @Intrinsic29 @HPluckrose
Harris does this in the Cenk debate when he says Mormonism is less probable a priori than Christianity bc it's Xianity + more assumptions.
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Replying to @Intrinsic29 @HPluckrose
Sorry for spamming you. This is a topic I tend to ramble about.
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Oh god! Don't encourage him! 
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