And does anyone say a lack of belief isn't the same as not believing? Usually say it's not the same as 'believing in lack of.'https://twitter.com/the_doctorv/status/892427782722138112 …
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Not sure how best to elaborate.. People often intuitively imagine religious claims are roughly 50% likely because they're either true or 1/2
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they're not true, but that's like saying a 20 sided die has a 50% chance of rolling a 7 because it'll either roll a 7 or it won't. 2/2
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There being so many distinct possibilities which cannot all simultaneously be true says a lot about the probability of claims w/o evidence.
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But one possibility can be so much more likely than all the rest.
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Ya, if we have evidence for it. If we have no evidence for a religious claim, it suffers from this problem of ~infinite other possibilities
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We can also further calculate probability *comparatively* based on the number of assumptions a hypothesis makes without evidence.
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Harris does this in the Cenk debate when he says Mormonism is less probable a priori than Christianity bc it's Xianity + more assumptions.
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Sorry for spamming you. This is a topic I tend to ramble about.
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