And the IEA pretty much always underestimates renewables.pic.twitter.com/vZ764wB46c
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And the IEA pretty much always underestimates renewables.pic.twitter.com/vZ764wB46c
It’s really difficult to see even how that coal growth will materialize given capacity factors for coal in India at what, 55%, in 2019. The RE growth is just going to kill the economics of coal
Even that forecast is optimistic for coal (and pessimistic for the world). But then we all know how consistently wrong IEA forecasts prove to be.
So that's almost 2000 TWh from coal and 1200 TWh from solar by 2040, at reasonable capacity factors of 55% and 22% respectively. Add in 575 TWh from wind at an optimistic capacity factor of 30 percent and you get 1775 TWh RE, still less than coal. Where's the transition?
My point isn’t that they’re projecting a transition (it’s the IEA for Gods sake!). My point is hysterical coal boosters in need of a growth market to replace OECD decline won’t find it here. Even this wildly over optimistic forecast leaves India at less than half Chinese fleet
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