One thing I noted is that half the games basically got a ratio of 0.2 or less, but once you get past that, things ramp up pretty quickly to values approaching 1.0x for more successful games.
Show this thread
Simon Carless @simoncarless has worked out a new Steam wishlists to week1 sales ratio of about 0.2 (median). Average is a bit higher, but maybe less useful. He discussed the data collection and analysis with me and I can confirm it is sound. Take a look:https://gamediscoverability.substack.com/p/steam-the-new-wishlists-to-first …
-
-
-
I went back and looked at my data from 2018 and the median was 0.36 and the average was 0.58. At the time I said each wishlist is worth approximately 0.5 sales but I think the median figure is more important as the 0.5 gives too many people a false hope, especially these days.
Show this thread -
Also I collected more data in the few months after I published my original research, and that data just further confirmed the median was 0.36 ish.
Show this thread -
So anyway, Simon's median (0.2 ish) is definitely a bit lower. Why is that? Is it due to times changing (Steam algo changes, wishlists quality decrease, overloaded Steam libraries etc) or the types of replies we got (maybe I got replies from more pro-level indies)? I don't know.
Show this thread -
The other important thing we both noted is that the possible range is wide! So you might use 0.2 in your projections but get way less than that, or everything might go right and you might get 1.0x.
Show this thread -
Realistically only pro-level games with decent marketing that are a good match for the Steam audience are likely to get 0.2 or higher (though there's no guarantee). So it would be reasonable for devs hobbyist/first timers/low budget devs to use a lower figure.
Show this thread -
Though of course you might still "get lucky" but you also might as well buy a lottery ticket if that's your business strategy. Anyway, it's tough out there, good luck.
Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
lol then my 0.08 was really terrible compared to the average! on the other hand since there was likely a Steam bug on launch week maybe my data is 100% unreliable
-
Yeah you did not have a good one but then again, others had even worse! You just got "below average". See what your next game does.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
Wow, that's quite grim
Thanks for the time and effort you put into this.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.