Gregor Macdonald

@GregorMacdonald

Journalist covering cities, climate, and energy. Former Bostonian, Angeleno, Londoner. | Oil Fall | gregor@gregor.us |

Portland, OR
Vrijeme pridruživanja: siječanj 2008.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    6. sij 2019.

    1/ Electricity is the new oil. China just killed the future of the internal combustion engine. And climate action (energy transition) is neither scary nor costly to the economy, but will pay for itself over twenty years. That's why I've written Oil Fall.

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  2. Stimulating or depressing global economic activity through the mechanism of oil now requires deeper price extremes at both ends, simply because oil has ceded so much market share to other sources. Once it was half. Now just a third.

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  3. 3. velj

    Might be time to trot out an old macro phrase: Sudden Stop.

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  4. 2. velj

    FWIW, my baseline for the 2020 election starts with the 2016 EV map, and automatically awards both MI and PA back to the generic Dem nominee. From there, it's everywhere and always about which nominee can get just one more state--but--none that are easy.

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  5. 2. velj

    Correction: these are quadrillion btu, not as I wrote mistakenly "trillion." Which is frustrating, considering how often I work in quads. Ergo: Year 2000: 38.292 quadrillion btu Year 2019: 38.295 quadrillion btu

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  6. 2. velj

    California ICE sales peaked in 2016. Wind+solar now provide over 20% of CA electricity. Accordingly, Argonne Labs shows an EV in California takes 17% less energy than an EV in rest of USA to go one mile (well to wheel). EV sales in CA already above 8% of market.

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  7. 2. velj

    US total oil consumption: Year 2000: 38.292 trillion btu Year 2019: 38.295 trillion btu The US does not face a problem of oil demand growth. Rather, it has a wicked problem (yeah, I'm from Boston) with oil dependency. That's the problem to confront.

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  8. 27. sij
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  9. 27. sij
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  10. 26. sij

    Arizona' APS joins the domino line of US utilities deciding to halt the losses of running existing coal.

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  11. 26. sij

    If your preferred candidate in 2020 was, back in 1520, still a supporter of the Roman church and biblical cosmogony in general, there's a little discipline called History to help you understand why.

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  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    24. sij

    To go along with the launch of , recorded a special Friday episode of the Odd Lots podcast with on how the transition to clean energy is *already* happening way faster than most people realize

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  13. 23. sij

    As the economics of coal crumble and crash--not just in the OECD where utilities unprompted shutter coal at a quickening pace to save money--but in the Non-OECD too where financing dries up, these EIA projections are increasingly absurd.

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  14. 23. sij
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  15. 23. sij

    And yet, Thunberg seems to have a better intuitive understanding of risk-reward, and return-on-investment. For a country that churns out Econ and MBA degrees by the truckload, we remain oddly trapped, cowering before every sticker-price, unable to invest in the future.

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  16. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    22. sij

    To coincide with the launch of , and I recorded a special Odd Lots with on renewable energy. It'll be out on Friday. And while I tend to be a cynic on a lot of this stuff, Gregor makes a good case that a major shift is truly underway.

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  17. 18. sij

    China sales of NEV (New Energy Vehicle) have grown above 50% for 4 years, but, disappointed in 2019, falling 4.3% after subsidy cuts hit in 2H. (China just announced no repeat of cuts in 2020). In 2020 you think NEV rebound, with sales rising from 1.206 million last year:

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  18. 16. sij

    In this regard, we have a lesson from global coal: it peaked in 2013, but we're still waiting for coal to finally enter a steady decline 7 years later. (I think we're getting close). All this said, the good-news trend is that electricity growth globally is trouncing oil growth.

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  19. 16. sij

    While encouraging to see oil demand growth continue to decelerate, there is not necessarily good news here yet, from a climate perspective. Global oil demand could convert to a dependency state for bulk of this coming decade. Not growing. But not falling.

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  20. 16. sij

    Both EIA and IEA kicked off 2019 with a forecast for 1.40 mbpd of global growth. EIA has now dialed that back to 0.82 mbpd. (IEA updates tomorrow). The Gregor Letter forecast was for growth as low as 0.70 mbpd. But this required no special insight--only that OECD = no growth.

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  21. 16. sij

    Main forecasting mistake made by both and for 2019 was way overestimating OECD demand--which didn't grow at all. US oil demand was flat in 2019. US gasoline demand flat also for third year, with no growth expected this year, or next. |

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