New #SARSCoV2 drugs or vaccine meaningless without:
1. How fast can we make?
2. How much needed by our country *and* others?
Read ~25 reports, none on what's achievable. Only "start early!".
Just 40% of
is 2.8b. USA 130 million #fastgrants @DanielleFong @yaneerbaryam @nntaleb
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Other academic work makes same usual demand mistake, and McKinsey. No mention in these projections of adjusting expected demand. Most critical part, e.g. for pharmaceuticals! Maybe b/c "no data" to use, too bad, need to estimate anyways. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/supply-chain-recovery-in-coronavirus-times-plan-for-now-and-the-future …pic.twitter.com/k5PKPOPYnh
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