Reports: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/supply-chain-issues … Example: Gilead can make 2 mil remsedvir courses by end 2020. At same rate as end 2020, that's 8 mil in 2021. https://www.gilead.com/stories/articles/an-update-on-covid-19-from-our-chairman-and-ceo …
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More media coverage on this issue and problem, featuring
@CIDRAP folks@daniellefonghttps://twitter.com/DavidJMargraf/status/1260230516395163648 …Show this thread
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UMN CIDRAP experts say even shortages of existing critical medicines within 90 days. My guess, it's underestimate, used "usual" demand for that estimate, report not available so can't tell.https://twin-cities.umn.edu/news-events/cidrap-finds-supply-chain-risks-availability-critical-drugs-during-covid-19-pandemic …
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Other academic work makes same usual demand mistake, and McKinsey. No mention in these projections of adjusting expected demand. Most critical part, e.g. for pharmaceuticals! Maybe b/c "no data" to use, too bad, need to estimate anyways. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/supply-chain-recovery-in-coronavirus-times-plan-for-now-and-the-future …pic.twitter.com/k5PKPOPYnh
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Vaccine J&J capacity 300 mil / year now, 8 mos to set up another 300 mil. See "...We can make 300 million vaccines, in a 2000-liter vessel, on an annual basis...set up the second one in the U.S. ... by the end of the year." Says can partner w others http://sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/1 …
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None of this is my field, maybe can scale, but I see no evidence/discussion. All the #'s for drug production are 2 orders too low. E.G. donating ~150 mil doses of HCQ, that's 30 mil treatments.https://www.outsourcing-pharma.com/Article/2020/03/23/Industry-ups-chloroquine-production …
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What's supply chain capacity for detection? CIDRAP Osterholm has said 3-4 weeks for reagents for testing (tho doesn't analyze hospitals trying to make due): https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/489877-health-officials-confront-new-threat-to-speed-of-testing … https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/opinion/coronavirus-trump-testing-shortages.html …
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3.5 mil antibody tests made in China to UK thrown out b/c quality issues: https://www.newsweek.com/uk-says-millions-coronavirus-test-kits-bought-china-unreliable-most-patients-1496506 … Shows manufacturing is *the* issue in responding at scale. Here's a list of tests in a Nature article, what is their production capacity & how fast? https://www.nature.com/articles/d41587-020-00010-2 …
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Expert implies vaccine *production* will take years "...probably in the order of billions of doses over several years, that could be from multiple manufacturers." https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/07/pandemic-expert-calls-for-making-coronavirus-vaccines-before-we-know-they-work/ …
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is 2.8b. USA 130 million