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GregNN's profile
Greg Nelson
Greg Nelson
Greg Nelson
@GregNN

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Greg Nelson

@GregNN

Tools for learning to read code before writing. Computing ed, systems thinking, f(x) instead of x, thanks for all the fish @amyjko @UW Greg/Greg, disabled

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Joined May 2009

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    Greg Nelson‏ @GregNN 8 Apr 2020

    New #SARSCoV2 drugs or vaccine meaningless without: 1. How fast can we make? 2. How much needed by our country *and* others? Read ~25 reports, none on what's achievable. Only "start early!". Just 40% of 🌎 is 2.8b. USA 130 million #fastgrants @DanielleFong @yaneerbaryam @nntaleb

    9:43 AM - 8 Apr 2020
    • 3 Retweets
    • 8 Likes
    • Elissa Shevinsky Amanda O.O.💜 Andre Watson 🧬 Greg Nelson JoEl Meeks-Matous 🤷🏻‍♀️
    10 replies 3 retweets 8 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Greg Nelson‏ @GregNN 8 Apr 2020

        Reports: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/supply-chain-issues … Example: Gilead can make 2 mil remsedvir courses by end 2020. At same rate as end 2020, that's 8 mil in 2021. https://www.gilead.com/stories/articles/an-update-on-covid-19-from-our-chairman-and-ceo …

        1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
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      3. Greg Nelson‏ @GregNN 12 May 2020

        Greg Nelson Retweeted Dave

        More media coverage on this issue and problem, featuring @CIDRAP folks @daniellefonghttps://twitter.com/DavidJMargraf/status/1260230516395163648 …

        Greg Nelson added,

        Dave @DavidJMargraf
        Stephen Schondelmeyer, co-principal investigator of the resilient drug supply project (@CIDRAP_RDS, @CIDRAP), discusses the need for transparency in the drug supply chain. https://qz.com/1854417/weak-supply-chains-could-leave-covid-19-patients-without-propofol/ …
        0 replies 3 retweets 2 likes
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      4. End of conversation
      1. Greg Nelson‏ @GregNN 8 Apr 2020

        UMN CIDRAP experts say even shortages of existing critical medicines within 90 days. My guess, it's underestimate, used "usual" demand for that estimate, report not available so can't tell.https://twin-cities.umn.edu/news-events/cidrap-finds-supply-chain-risks-availability-critical-drugs-during-covid-19-pandemic …

        0 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
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      1. Greg Nelson‏ @GregNN 8 Apr 2020

        Other academic work makes same usual demand mistake, and McKinsey. No mention in these projections of adjusting expected demand. Most critical part, e.g. for pharmaceuticals! Maybe b/c "no data" to use, too bad, need to estimate anyways. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/supply-chain-recovery-in-coronavirus-times-plan-for-now-and-the-future …pic.twitter.com/k5PKPOPYnh

        0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
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      1. Greg Nelson‏ @GregNN 8 Apr 2020

        Vaccine J&J capacity 300 mil / year now, 8 mos to set up another 300 mil. See "...We can make 300 million vaccines, in a 2000-liter vessel, on an annual basis...set up the second one in the U.S. ... by the end of the year." Says can partner w others http://sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/1 …

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      1. Greg Nelson‏ @GregNN 8 Apr 2020

        None of this is my field, maybe can scale, but I see no evidence/discussion. All the #'s for drug production are 2 orders too low. E.G. donating ~150 mil doses of HCQ, that's 30 mil treatments.https://www.outsourcing-pharma.com/Article/2020/03/23/Industry-ups-chloroquine-production …

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      1. Greg Nelson‏ @GregNN 8 Apr 2020

        What's supply chain capacity for detection? CIDRAP Osterholm has said 3-4 weeks for reagents for testing (tho doesn't analyze hospitals trying to make due): https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/489877-health-officials-confront-new-threat-to-speed-of-testing … https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/opinion/coronavirus-trump-testing-shortages.html …

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      1. Greg Nelson‏ @GregNN 8 Apr 2020

        3.5 mil antibody tests made in China to UK thrown out b/c quality issues: https://www.newsweek.com/uk-says-millions-coronavirus-test-kits-bought-china-unreliable-most-patients-1496506 … Shows manufacturing is *the* issue in responding at scale. Here's a list of tests in a Nature article, what is their production capacity & how fast? https://www.nature.com/articles/d41587-020-00010-2 …

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      1. Greg Nelson‏ @GregNN 8 Apr 2020

        Expert implies vaccine *production* will take years "...probably in the order of billions of doses over several years, that could be from multiple manufacturers." https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/07/pandemic-expert-calls-for-making-coronavirus-vaccines-before-we-know-they-work/ …

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      1. JoEl Meeks-Matous‏ @ThePsyence 8 Apr 2020
        Replying to @GregNN @DanielleFong and

        Thank you

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