Gregory Daco

@GregDaco

Chief US Economist, . NABE Board Director . Father of two. Husband of one. Views are my own.

New York, NY
oxfordeconomics.com
Geregistreerd in september 2011
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  1. Vastgemaakte Tweet
    17 apr.

    Using game theory to understand wars. Why the imposition of is the Nash equilibrium, and how time & communication can help achieve a mutually beneficial outcome.

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  2. heeft geretweet
    3 uur geleden

    Since WTO began regulating international trade, the US has won about 90% of cases we’ve brought as a complainant. That’s about the record for other complainants too - complainant country usually wins. (Most cases settle before being adjudicated.)

    "ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE, June 29 (Reuters) - Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One... Trump said the United States has been treated very badly by the World Trade Organization." [Ed: that's not true.]
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  3. heeft geretweet
    9 uur geleden

    This is a key point. The question was never whether the economy could grow at 4%+ for a quarter or two, or for 3% for a year The question is whether it's 3% year after year after year It's disingenuous to claim "No one said 3% was possible" in the context of one year's growth

    Many, many economic models have been forecasting a growth upturn. And yet the same models also show trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see.
    7 antwoorden 11 retweets 24 vind-ik-leuks
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  4. heeft geretweet
    28 jun.

    This chart, from an article in today’s Wall Street Journal (“China Unlikely to Use Treasurys as Weapon”), lists the foreign holders of $6.2 trillion of US government bonds.

    10 antwoorden 49 retweets 68 vind-ik-leuks
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  5. heeft geretweet
    15 uur geleden

    Kudlow on FNB: “The deficit, it’s coming down and it’s coming down rapidly.” (It’s not)

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  6. 10 uur geleden

    US spending moderated in May as posted largest increase in over 6 years As I told a solid rebound in consumer spending growth in Q2 after a lackluster Q1, but a slowing trend going into H2 2018 via

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  7. 11 uur geleden

    L'inflation aux Etats-Unis a atteint en mai un sommet en 6 ans. Avec cette inflation qui montre de la résilience autour de la cible de 2 % de la , nous continuons à anticiper un total de 4 relèvements des taux en 2018 via

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  8. 13 uur geleden

    Headline PCE reached 2.3% in May -- highest since Mar 2012 -- while core inflation +2.0% -- highest since April 2012. With inflation at the 's 2% target and likely to push higher this summer we continue to see 4 rate hikes in 2018. Big unknown is policy...

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  9. 14 uur geleden

    These data confirm take on the US econ. Q2 will represent a peak with GDP growth around 3% y/y for the first time in four years. With tax stimulus dissipating and rising, consumer spending growth will converge with real disposable income growth

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  10. heeft geretweet
    14 uur geleden

    Thanks Greg! The PCE Core was +0.2% on the month and +2.0% on the year, the first time it has been at two percent since April 2012

    Solid US personal income +0.4% in May. Real disposable income +0.2% & real consumer spend flat. Solid but slowing momentum for consumer spending +2.3% y/y -- slowest since Mar 2016. Growth in Q2 ~2.8% (saar) much better than +0.9% Q1. Our Q2 tracker down to +4.3% from +5%.
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  11. 14 uur geleden

    Solid US personal income +0.4% in May. Real disposable income +0.2% & real consumer spend flat. Solid but slowing momentum for consumer spending +2.3% y/y -- slowest since Mar 2016. Growth in Q2 ~2.8% (saar) much better than +0.9% Q1. Our Q2 tracker down to +4.3% from +5%.

    2 antwoorden 5 retweets 6 vind-ik-leuks
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  12. heeft geretweet
    16 uur geleden

    1. America designed the WTO 2. America benefits massively from the WTO Withdrawal cuts off American farmers, workers and companies from 7 billion consumers in countries growing much faster than America can/will Disinform. Demonize. Destroy. This is LAZY policy. And so, so scary

    President Trump has repeatedly told top White House officials he wants to withdraw the United States from the World Trade Organization, a move that would throw global trade into wild disarray
    47 antwoorden 677 retweets 936 vind-ik-leuks
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  13. heeft geretweet
    16 uur geleden

    Important point: “As head of state, Trump under international law could make the notification at the WTO. But the U.S. law implementing the WTO agreements states quite plainly that withdrawal from the WTO requires an act of Congress.”

    President Trump has repeatedly told top White House officials he wants to withdraw the United States from the World Trade Organization, a move that would throw global trade into wild disarray
    14 antwoorden 133 retweets 153 vind-ik-leuks
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  14. 14 uur geleden

    EU leaders strike deal on migrants via

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  15. 15 uur geleden

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  16. 28 jun.

    At least 100,000 Americans could lose their jobs if the administration follows through on it's EU threats via via

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  17. 28 jun.

    To all my Germans friends, don’t despair! There is still a way to enjoy the : Just recycle your flag! (h/t )

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  18. heeft geretweet
    28 jun.

    An extended metaphor from Eric Rosengren on his worries about keeping monetary policy too easy—or keeping the punchbowl out too long

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  19. heeft geretweet
    28 jun.

    Escalation of EU-US looks certain - likeliest. €46bn of EU exports wld be 7x the trade hit by metals tariffs. Impact manageable at 0.1% of GDP. But Gemany, CEE hit disproportionately and confidence shock would add to toll:

    2 antwoorden 20 retweets 14 vind-ik-leuks
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  20. 28 jun.

    Gross domestic output (average of GDP and GDIncome) +2.8% (saar) in Q1 and +2.6% y/y -- good forward looking indicator. Headline PCE 1.8% y/y while core inflation +1.6% y/y

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  21. 28 jun.

    US final Q1 +2.0%: - slow consumer spending in Q1 - 0.9% is lowest since 2013; but much stronger pace in Q2 - strong business investment +10.4% - strongest since 2014; & continued momentum in Q2 - net trade & inventories contributions neutral; expected to turn positive in Q2

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