Unless you are in some sort of real-life version of Brewster's Millions, there is no reason on the planet to place this bet.https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/975539261452816384 …
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Replying to @jesswelman
Not saying it is ... but what if it's still +EV? We don't hear about this bet the 99.5% of the time it hits.
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Replying to @brettcollson
If you need $27 that badly, I will give it to you.
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Replying to @jesswelman
Just saying. The small wins add up quickly when you're on the right side.
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Replying to @brettcollson
I guess the risk v reward is just too out of whack for me. Who is a person that can afford to lose $2K, but cares enough about earning $27 to put such a sum at risk?
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Replying to @jesswelman
A high volume bettor that identifies an edge. Or a complete degenerate.
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Replying to @brettcollson @jesswelman
All volume does is reduce the volatility. Instead of one bet of $2,000 winning $26.65 or losing altogether, you might have 100 bets ($200K total) winning roughly $2,665 in the aggregate over time. (1/3)
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(2/3) The correct question is whether 133 bps (1.33%) correctly compensates for the risk you are taking. This is harder to answer. But a 3-month treasury bill right now pays ~1.77%, and is one common measure of a "risk free rate return".
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(3/3) I'm not familiar with the usual edges the big money gaming consortiums are looking to exploit. But at 1.33% return, it seems like there would've been a lot more profitable ways to invest that money.
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(4/3) Also possible that two different sites had significantly different prices for the bet, setting up an arbitrage opportunity. We only hear about the losing side when the bettor was actually free rolling.
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